Recent events have prompted more than one reader to tell me my dystopian novel Our War (Orbit, August 2019), about a second American civil war, is quickly becoming nonfiction. A 2018 Rasmussen poll found that nearly a third of Americans believed a civil war was likely to happen in the United States in the next five years. While I personally believe civil strife (defined as 25+ deaths per year) is far more likely than civil war (defined as 1,000+ combatant deaths per year), the scenario depicted in Our War, which is precipitated by the impeachment of a president who refuses to step down, is certainly plausible.
In this novel, just as in reality, American politics has become so polarized and tribalized that it gained conditions that have precipitated coups and civil wars in other countries: entrenched polarization, distrust of public institutions, violence achieving legitimacy as a way of solving problems, lack of political leadership, and divisive press coverage.
The war’s first catalyst is the president’s impeachment by the House. As in reality, right-wing commentators, militias, and even politicians warn of civil war if the Congress were to remove him. Meanwhile, thousands of people camp at the National Mall in an “Occupy the Mall” protest demanding the president resign, though the country is evenly split on whether he should be removed, and one-third unequivocally support him. After the Senate convicts the president, he refuses to leave office, triggering a Constitutional crisis. Snipers fire into the crowds at the Mall, resulting in a massacre aired on live television and a nationwide panic.
Experts have estimated that as many as 60,000 armed right-wing militia members are operating in the United States. They stage a national armed protest that snowballs into a revolution. In their view, they are fulfilling the intent of the Founding Fathers who said if the government became broken, the citizenry had a right to overthrow and replace it. While their initial goal is to protect the president against a perceived soft coup by the Deep State, eventually they aim for a Constitutional Convention that will completely rewrite the American system.
Even with swelling recruitment in the first days of the civil war, they don’t have the numbers or resources to control the entire country, but they do have enough to roll into a small town, make changes to its government, and keep going to the next. The Three Percenters militia is to an extent based on this concept, that only a small percentage of Americans is necessary to successfully overthrow the government, inspired by a belief that only three percent of Americans fought and won the American Revolution.
The government, meanwhile, dithers in response to this rapid, diffuse threat to national security. While there are some 650,000 police in the United States, many would be sympathetic or even actively join the militia side, and the majority of the rest are in cities, where the militias are indeed stopped from going further. As for the powerful U.S. military, they would find it very difficult to respond. A recent Military Times survey found that nearly four out of five active-duty service members see the military as being more politically polarized. One out of three service members is registered Republican, with the officer corps tending to be more conservative, and one out of five is registered Democrat, with the rank and file tending to be more liberal. Add to this the fact that though impeached, the president remains the commander in chief of the nation’s armed forces.
The military faces a tough choice. They could remove the president with a coup, attempt to restore order by force and risk open warfare against Americans, or safeguard life and vital infrastructure while the president and Congress, which has relocated to New York, begin talks to achieve a political solution. They decide on the latter, leaving the war’s factions to fight it out among themselves.
Civil war ensues. Eventually, the battle lines would form not between states but largely between rural (sparse population density and predominantly conservative) and urban (high population density and predominantly liberal). For example, Indianapolis, where Our War takes place a year after the war started, is a deep “blue” city in a sea of “red.” In the early days of civil strife, gunmen came with automatic rifles in ski masks attempted to cordon off sections of the city, but failed in the face of massive crowds taking to the streets demanding unity and peace. After a bomb goes off in Mile Square, followed by days of house to house fighting between police and gunmen (including rogue police officers), the city government finally secures the city only to find it surrounded by right-wing militias who regard it as the grand prize. This is very similar to Sarajevo’s experience in the 1990s.
During the siege, various organizations inside Indianapolis form their own militias, some out of simple self defense, others to achieve their own political goals as the Left becomes similarly armed and increasingly radicalized. The police department becomes the government army operated by a centrist coalition, while Leftist and other civilian militias defend their turf. While the presidential side has better training and weaponry, the Congressional side has greater numbers. As the war goes on, refugees, failing infrastructure, shortages, and even atrocities and child soldiers become common.
The executive branch and Congress meet for peace talks in Ottawa, but the president holds out, hoping for successes on the battlefield that will result in more concessions. For the presidential side, the stakes are far more than whether the president stays in office or gains immunity from prosecution if he leaves. He and his backers are aiming for a Constitutional Convention that will rewrite the Constitution, with demands including zero restrictions on gun ownership, a national ID card, elimination of the income tax, a balanced budget requirement, English as the national language, and more. The Congressional side, led by centrists, mainly wants to remove the president and resume the same system as before the war, resulting in internal conflicts with the Left, which has its own demands, such as publicly funded elections, elimination of billionaires, healthcare as a right, and more. Meanwhile, reeling from the economic shock of America tottering on the brink of collapse, the rest of the world suffers its own wave of populist movements and wars. Various countries send aid to the United States, while some supply arms to one or even both sides of the conflict.
Our War poses the above as a possible scenario for a second American civil war, resulting from entrenched polarization and gridlock as the kindling, a Constitutional crisis as the spark, and a small but well-funded and coordinated militia movement attempting to overthrow the government.
This polarization, entrenched by competing media, results in Americans with common problems having entirely different narratives about why those problems exist and how to solve them, even different sets of facts. Meanwhile, gridlock has made government ineffective and destroyed trust in public institutions; the American political system, designed to promote unity, means one party cannot get much done without either the White House along with a Congressional super-majority, or the parties being civil and compromising.
I’d like to say the solution is to simply listen more to the “other side,” or some such platitude we often hear as the answer to these problems, but the truth is I believe there is simply too much money and power invested in the polarization for it to stop without more systemic change. Just as it attempts to be nonpartisan, Our War does no preaching, being a story designed to entertain while at the same time, as a dystopian novel, provide a warning. It is up to the reader to reflect on the themes and discuss solutions on their own. What I can say is I naturally hope a civil war never occurs in America, as in many civil wars, everybody fights, and nobody wins. Enough to say Our War is speculative fiction, however much it’s starting to resemble reality; let’s hope it stays that way.
The author has a warped sense of reality…won’t happen that way!!
Thanks for commenting, Chuck. This is the background for a work of fiction. As far as it being possible, I think it’s very possible, if unlikely. A lot of things described in the novel have already come to pass since it was written, from the impeachment to the president calling for civil war to right wing militias conducting armed protests in government buildings to them calling the impeachment a “soft coup by the Deep State.”
But count me as wanting very much to be proven wrong, that if Trump loses in November, there won’t be violence.
as of yesterday there was violence.
I have to wonder if the author has ever served in the military? Reason being, most in the military are conservative. It would be more accurate to say 3 out of 5 or maybe even 4 out of 5 being conservative.
Thanks for your comment, Joe. A recent Military Times survey found that nearly four out of five active-duty service members see the military as being more politically polarized. One out of three service members is registered Republican, with the officer corps tending to be more conservative, and one out of five is registered Democrat, with the rank and file tending to be more liberal. The party registration is opposite what is typical in the country, so yes, the military is more conservative than the public at large, and its officers certainly so, but like America, it is politically polarized, it is not one thing or the other.
Rank and file being more liberal generally applies to the lower ranks below E5. Like most working people; once one works and struggles to attain a higher station, one usually starts tracking more right in their political and economic views.
Thanks for commenting, Craig. Actually, many wealthy people are socially liberal while being economically conservative, though they support existing programs like Social Security and Medicare to avoid mass poverty among seniors.
As for soldiers, it may be something about the conservative mindset that makes military service as a career more compelling. I wonder if anybody’s ever studied it.
I did serve, and yes it’s closer to 75 percent Conservative.
thats exactly how it will happe and the cities will lose power water and food. you figure it out bridges out no internet , no lights and your kids are hungry
With these characteristics in mind we can envision what a modern U.S. civil war might look like. More sporadic and unexpected conflicts but with fewer deaths. Factions sprouting like mushrooms, taking different forms but coordinated across invisible networks. Waves of information warfare. Chaos and an accelerated bazaar of violence with a healthy immune response from the local and national authorities. The outcome (and probable goal) would likely be a fragmentation of the republic into smaller, more manageable alliances, though it may just as easily harden an increasingly authoritarian federal government. This is essentially how Russia waged its non-linear war against Ukraine. To counter this emerging threat in America it’s critical to establish more formal practices for identifying and tracking domestic extremism — with an honest recognition that young, white males on both ends of the political spectrum are the most likely to commit violence. Likewise, we must formalize robust network analysis to map and track these distributed groups across their digital territories and to identify their backers, funders, and agitators. Finally, there needs to be a very serious conversation about how to regulate Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter as platforms for influence, instigation, propaganda, and recruiting.
Hi Alma. Astute observations and informed commentary. Thanks for your thoughts
An interesting read. I often wonder what our National Guard would do in a situation like this. Would there be a run for military equipment… with some of the guard grabbing one set of “tools” where as others are able to get their hands on other equipment. (Here in Lexington, MA where I write this from, there are some National Guard troops that originated from Military that technically never disbanded. They just evolved to what we have to day. ) I think civil would also play out in more urban areas with acts of “terror” and in between fighting in the streets with building take overs. Nevertheless, things seems to be “brewing.” We have Twitter and Facebook engaged in Fact Checking…which could be “abused” and snowball out of control. Cyberspace would definitely be part of of the civil war process.
What of those who see both Dems and Republicans used as pawns…puppets controlled and pitted against each other by the same master? Those who believe no matter which of the two are in power, simply have too much power? Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
In this war between two sides, there are those that want nothing to do with either. They simply want to live, be self sufficient, and left alone. These people would be fighting to survive and defend their families. Will they eventually be wiped out by both sides?
Thank you for your time and consideration. Loved your analysis.
Thanks, Scott! In the book, the majority of people are simply trying to survive.
It is a very realistic account of what could happen. The problem is that people have to take their politics out of it in order to observe it with clarity and prepare for the eventuality. I would like to contribute to give my perspectives on some of the topics brought up.
First, the military and the police are not a plurality. You have the same divisions as you do any where else. It would evenly, more or less, split just like every other institution. This is what makes a civil conflict so terrible, it fractures the nation to the core. Its brought up alot that the military is conservative. This is and is not true at the same time. The Combat Arms( Infantry, SOF, Tanks, etc.) are still wildly conservative. It does not matter how many go which way, but who does. The civilian world doesn’t see it, but there is a HUGE difference between the capabilities of a combat arms Soldier or Marine, and the rest of the force.
Second, we have a very linear view of a Civil War in this country. We have the idea of our own Civil War as our guide, which this will not be. A better vision would be of Aleppo, Syria or Sarajevo. It will be a thousand different groups competing for control of geographical areas. It will be a thousands fronts, a thousand ideas, and a thousand outcomes. Again, this is what makes this such a terrible prospect.
Finally, these things have a tendency to develop their own momentum. It is very rare that ideology holds past your first gunfight. Nobody talks about truth and the American way of life three months in at a patrol base in Afghanistan where you just took three casualties. You are there to survive. You become a tribe that solely exists to protect each other under the most extreme situations known to man. Modern militaries overcome this by accountability for ones actions. Civil combatants who are ad hoc volunteers do not have this type of mechanism. This is why you see such atrocities in dirty political conflicts. They get caught up in a cycle of revenge and retribution. A conflict in our country would soon become a free for all of suffering on all sides.
I hope this helped somebody, warfare has been the focus of my entire adult life. I see many on each side of the aisle conjuring the specter of war. I hope they consider it carefully. When it makes it appearance, you probably will not like its outcome. Be safe.
Thanks for that, Andy. I’m in total agreement with you.
If the lines in the sand are drawn between Liberal and Conservative, you don’t have to look much past “who controls the food?” Look at any Red/Blue election map and it’s very clear that the “food belt states” are conservatives. The major urban sprawls in the US are liberal strongholds, but don’t produce much and are completely dependent on the producing states. I concur with previous comments that the military forces would be split, and the same could be said about police forces, with the edge going to conservatives. So….that being said, add gun owners, current militias, an even split of police/military, the conservatives have the major edge in having production on their side. Full belly’s win wars.
Excellent comments, James. In OUR WAR, the Right has most of the rural areas, while the Left has the cities and their people and production. The cities are actually the most productive areas in the country in terms of wealth and goods. The rural areas though as you say produces the food. As cities fall under siege, with their populations swollen by refugees, food does indeed become scarce, with many people dependent on aid packages coming from other countries like Canada, though food does trickle in from the countryside, as money is money and farmers need it as much as they need food; this food, especially luxuries, will be very expensive.
In OUR WAR, the military does split, though it largely stays neutral with National Guard units deployed to ensure food is delivered and to prevent famine. The police force does split, though in the end it remains loyal to the local governments, which aren’t Right or Left but the Center, currently allied with the Left. This is very similar to what occurred in the Spanish Civil War.
I have to believe the right would win this one. They have had enough of the cheating and lying from the left. The right has remained silent while the left has cried and thrown their temper tantrums. Eventually the silence will break. And as already mentioned, the left will control the cities, but they can’t hold out forever before eventually starving and turning on one another!
The right will control the food supply and can “live off the land”.
Most of the left wouldn’t recognize food without the box or container it comes in.
I can, however, see the left infiltrate the right by posing as “wolves in sheep’s clothing”, much like we have seen recently on the news at the Capitol.
Politically speaking, there seems to no longer be two parties. Just one that wants control over everything, no matter how much lying and cheating it takes to get it, and the other that just craves into them. That’s what has many outraged today.
Thanks for commenting, John. Nobody would win a civil war. That’s the point of the book.
I’ve been to war, and you are exactly right, nobody wins, I lost men overseas and we killed the taliban. But the emotional and physical scars don’t go away. Anybody you wishes for war have never seen the affects. Anybody who thinks one side will conquer the other is stupid. Yes we control the food, but are you seriously saying you will kill your fellow Americans? If so you should be locked up. War isn’t a game you can just respawn and be all fine and dandy. Death is permanent. Killing somebody is no easy feat either. I have seen the biggest baddest dudes freeze. These are men with actual military training men who I have seen beat the crap out of people back in the states. But killing somebody, even when your life or the life of a loved one is on the line is no guarantee. Stop pretending like you would survive this situation because most likely you or I wouldn’t. Your dumb John.
You Are Absolutely Correct Sir! Seems they think everyone is completely blind… The Media has shown True Colors.. Will Never be Forgotten.
struggling people that rely on gov are the players in this. Successful people that have their life in order stay away from drama, which is what this is. Look at the rioters and individuals invading the white house, trash!
Trash will always end up on the losing side of this scenario. People like the author here keep fueling the fire.
Thanks for commenting, BB. Actually, the people who invaded the Capitol are the type who don’t believe in any reliance on government.
As for fueling the fire, I’m not sure what you mean. Both the article and the book are a dire warning against civil war.
I agree no one wins in any war. Lives are lost and family’s are destroyed and the American dream is sullied no matter the outcome. I also have to remind all of my fellow Americans in this thread, of facts. And facts are the American government is at best a failure as of now. Corruption at the township levels has become normal and excepted let alone at the state and federal levels. This is the issue at hand and it’s not some impossible math problem or equation that no one can figure out. It is very simple actually. This book doesn’t address any possible solutions bc it’s a hypothetical book and fiction so no need to debate emotionally and comment Bc of initial ideological biases. The problem remains very simple and solvable and it starts with your neighbors and your community. If everyone would except the fact of freedom of speech and free thought and intelligently grasp the factual reality of those terms it would be easier to talk to each other without preassumed stereotypes of each other because of disagreements. Simply put we are all very very very lucky to live in the world of modern technology and access to education weather it be public private or college or the absolutely free public library that every single small town and city have many . Anyone can go learn history or a different language or read about the government or check out a copy of the Koran or the Bible or the teaching of Buddha or any multitude of factual nonfiction books that are sitting on the shelves collecting dust most likely a few miles from where you are sitting right now. The American people as a whole regardless of legal or illegal or black white yellow red purple or blue, gay straight bi, trans, neutral whoever or whatever you are. If you live in this country in anyway shape or form there are buildings that are dedicated solely to providing anyone and everyone with endless amounts of free education and enlightenment . They are called Library’s (once again)and most people that have hard leaning political views to just one side of a party I’d put a hard earned paycheck on theyre neglect of individual thought guided by there time spent in these places we call library’s. No offense but if you spend enough time reading facts it’s very simple to see truths and be intelligent enough that “picking sides “ ended in 5th grade gym class. Also I will add that it is fact that our government and its ELECTED representatives do in fact by law and by sworn oath taken by every elected official are absolute direct employees of the American people. If any one doubts this in any way I refer you to those things I was telling you about called
Library’s . Much love to everyone we are all in this together and it’s time to shut up and shake hands and go to work and enjoy every breath and every sunset and every smile and every day and rise above hate and hateful mindsets. We can all be happy if we educate ourselves and except everyone with open minds and hearts
I find it hard to believe that everyone who voted Republican will pick up a gun and go out and kill their neighbor, son, daughter or friends just because they voted Democrat. If that is the case, this country is already over. Most people do not know the feeling of killing someone. Let alone, killing someone you know or love just because of a difference of opinion. A lot of our problems are due to radical news stations that tell lies and phony stories to get people riled up. Trump is a person who wants to be “King of America” or the equivalent of an American Putin. Is that really what we want in America? A dictator who chooses who gets and takes what he wants and favors those who worship him! This country needs to get their head out of their ass and remember what the Constitution is and what it stands for. If you are not happy with that, go to a country where you can pick on the weak and poor and prove how manly you are! These so called patriots are not patriots at all, they are just thugs and terrorists who hide behind the word patriot. Patriots are people who fight for their country, not against it just because they did not get their way!